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Calibration Quiz

Are You As Accurate As You Think?

⏱️ 3 minutes • 10 questions • No signup required

⚠️ The Problem

"When experts say they're 90% confident, they're usually right only 50% of the time."

Most professionals dramatically overestimate their estimation accuracy:

  • •Project managers consistently miss deadlines by 50-150%
  • •Financial analysts have confidence intervals that fail to capture actual results
  • •Executives make decisions based on gut feelings disguised as data

This isn't a character flaw — it's how human cognition works. The good news? It's trainable.

📊 The Science

Douglas Hubbard's Research

From "How to Measure Anything": Calibration is a measurable skill. A "calibrated" estimator is one whose stated confidence matches actual accuracy.

When you say "90% confident," 90% of your ranges should contain the correct answer. Most people achieve only 50-70% — their intervals are far too narrow.

The Shell Oil Case Study

Royal Dutch Shell trained geologists in calibrated estimation. After just a few hours of feedback-based training, their oil field predictions became significantly more accurate, saving millions in exploration costs.

🔮 How This Quiz Works

  1. 1You'll see 10 estimation questions (geography, history, science, business)
  2. 2For each, provide a range where you're 90% confident the answer falls
  3. 3We reveal the answers and calculate your calibration score
  4. ✓Perfect calibration = 90% (9 of 10 within your ranges)

Most people score 40-60% on their first attempt — don't feel bad if you do!